The Tech Hiring Paradox: Layoffs Are Real – But So Is Growth

The headlines on tech layoffs feel brutal. Amazon, Accenture, Intel, Microsoft, Meta, Mozilla, and more have all announced workforce reductions, and decisions like these may not be over.

And yet – despite how awful this is for everyone impacted – the narrative that ‘tech hiring is dead’ or ‘AI is already coming for your jobs’ is not the whole story. In fact, hiring may be slower but it’s not nothing. It’s a much more nuanced picture.

This is what I see:

1. A return to sustainable tech hiring practices after pandemic-era excess
2. A shift in the skills and profiles companies are seeking
3. Increased investment in junior and AI-proficient technical talent
4. Companies recognizing that AI-augmented developers represent better ROI, driving more hiring, not less
5. An explosion of newly viable product possibilities, thanks to AI, creating demand for people to build them – and, in turn, driving more hiring

Let’s get into it.

A Look at the Actual Data
Over the past five years, we have – without question – seen tech layoffs spike. It’s worth noting that these aren’t just developer roles; they’re jobs across all functions at “tech companies”. In 2023, according to Trueup.io, the number was 430K people impacted; last year, it was 240K. In 2025, the number is projected to reach just over 200K. 

These are real people and real families, and I don’t – for a second – discount the enormous disruption and uncertainty these layoffs have certainly caused them.

But as many have noted, companies are course-correcting after a lengthy period of over hiring and labor hoarding: hiring and holding on to high-value, high-cost workers, a common practice in 2020 and 2021. In fact, some companies “nearly doubled their headcount between 2019 and 2022” as a result. Today’s rebalancing, as The Wall Street Journal observed, may be spurred by multiple factors: the promise of what AI might be able to do in the future, weak demand, and economic volatility. 

As of early November, there are nearly 240K open tech jobs, a decline of roughly 50 percent from tech’s peak and an increase of 45 percent from the industry’s low two years ago. 

That’s not zero. 

That’s a painful normalization after an unsustainable spike.

It tracks with what we’re seeing at CoderPad. When I look at our own data on technical interviewing activity, comparing this time last year to today, we’re seeing usage trending substantially upward, if we compare 2023 to today. 

As you can see, companies are still investing in technical talent. And they’re doing so incredibly intentionally.

Companies Are Reshaping Hiring Based on AI (And That’s Not Bad)

AI isn’t decimating developer jobs so much as it’s transforming them in three fundamental ways:

AI is changing the skills teams need, not eliminating teams entirely

As organizations grow, they’re actively seeking people who can work effectively with AI tools, know how to leverage these capabilities, and bring AI-native thinking to their work. This is driving demand for different skill sets and profiles than we saw five years ago. Companies that relied on basic technical assessments are realizing they need better solutions to evaluate these evolving capabilities.

AI is improving developer ROI – and, in turn, their value to companies

Think about it this way: if a developer used to ship 10 product features a year, and AI makes them 30% more effective, that same person now delivers 13 features annually – for the same cost. 

That’s not a reason to hire fewer developers. 

That’s a reason to invest more in developer talent because you’re getting better returns. 

Research from companies like GitHub shows that developers using AI coding tools are seeing measurable productivity improvements, particularly in reducing time spent on repetitive tasks and code reviews. And we’re seeing this driving an increased demand for developers – both internally at CoderPad and with our customers.

AI is opening the aperture on what we can build today

Features and products that would have taken years to develop – or had been completely impractical to invest in – are suddenly achievable. This isn’t theoretical for us. At my company, we’re experiencing this firsthand: so many ideas that were once in the “someday/maybe/if we have resources”column are now viable. We need more talented people to bring these possibilities to life. People power is critical – and I assure you, we’re not the only company who sees that!

Smart Companies Are Hiring For AI-Savvy Developers

The macro data tells one story. But let me share what I’m hearing directly from customers and prospects in the past month:

Shopify, for example, is expanding its intern and junior developer program by 20x, from 50 hires two years ago to approximately one thousand. Why such aggressive growth in entry-level talent? Three reasons: there’s an enormous amount to build, they recognize they need to invest in junior talent today to develop senior talent tomorrow, and they know younger, AI-native workers will bring fresh perspectives and skills to their culture and processes.

Despite their layoffs, Meta, as you’ve probably heard, is on a significant hiring push. And Amazon currently has thousands of software engineer positions open, also going against the Amazon headlines. Walmart is hiring aggressively for developers.

Take Heart – And Action

The full picture helps people make informed decisions about their hiring strategies, assumptions about where the market is heading, and their careers.

If you’re a developer: the skills you have and continue to build matter. Particularly if you’re learning to work effectively with AI tools, you’re making yourself more valuable, not less. Companies need you.

If you’re a hiring manager: look at your actual business needs and the ROI of technical talent in an AI-augmented world. The math may surprise you. And if you need to hire more devs, call me. 😉 

If you’re a junior developer: know that companies are actively seeking AI-native talent who can bring new approaches. Your fresh perspective has value.

And if you’ve been laid off: this is painful,and I’m sorry. Keep going. The data suggests opportunities are still out there. The market is shifting, not disappearing.

The question isn’t whether technical hiring is dying. It’s how we’re preparing for the kind of technical hiring that’s emerging.

Ready to start modernizing your technical hiring for the AI-era? CoderPad enables AI-aware, realistic assessments that measure how candidates actually work with modern AI tools—so you get stronger signal, fairer evaluations, and faster decisions without encouraging “no-AI” test behavior. Get in touch with our team here.